2026 Housing Market Update for Dayton & the Miami Valley: Buyers Aren’t Waiting for Spring

If you’ve been thinking, “We’ll wait until spring,” the market may already be moving without you.

Nationally, existing-home sales ended 2025 with a meaningful jolt of momentum. The National Association of REALTORS® reported that existing-home sales rose 5.1% in December to a 4.35 million seasonally adjusted annual rate—an end-of-year finish that surprised a lot of people.

 

And here at home in the Miami Valley, the local numbers show the same theme: activity picked up as 2026 approached, and serious buyers were still out shopping in December.

December’s message is clear: the “spring market” is starting earlier

In the NAR release, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that “December home sales… were the strongest in nearly three years.”

That lines up with what many local buyers and sellers are feeling: people aren’t waiting for perfect conditions anymore. They’re making moves when the right home (or the right plan) shows up.

National snapshot (why the headlines matter)

NAR’s December 2025 report highlighted:

  • Median existing-home price: $405,400 (up 0.4% year over year)

  • Inventory: 1.18 million homes, about 3.3 months of supply

  • Mortgage rates: NAR cited Freddie Mac data showing the average 30-year fixed was 6.19% in December

Even more recently, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.10% as of January 29, 2026, still hovering near the lowest levels in more than three years.

Dayton Ohio Real Estate Market Update

What the latest numbers look like locally in Dayton-area home sales

The Dayton REALTORS® year-end update showed a market that stayed competitive but also gained momentum late in the year. For December 2025 specifically:

  • Sales increased 14% year over year

  • Listings increased 4%

  • Median sale price: $250,000

  • Average sale price: $290,366

For full-year 2025, Dayton REALTORS® reported:

  • Median sale price: $255,000 (up 6%)

  • Average sale price: $293,404 (up 5%+)

  • Sale-to-list ratio: about 99.7%

  • Inventory: roughly 1.8 months supply at year end

That last stat matters: 1.8 months of supply is still tight. In many Miami Valley neighborhoods, well-prepped, well-priced homes can move fast—regardless of the season.

Is 2026 shifting toward buyers… or still a seller market?

Nationally, buyers have gained greater negotiating power in many markets—often through price reductions or concessions. Redfin reported that in December 2025, the typical home sold for 1.8% less than its final list price, and only 22% sold above list (the lowest December share since 2019).

But here’s the local nuance: in the Dayton MLS data, the market is still showing strong sale-to-list performance (December around 98.8%), and inventory remains lean.
While buyers may have more opportunities to negotiate in certain situations, the best homes can still attract strong competition.

What this means for buyers in 2026

If you’re planning to buy in Dayton, Beavercreek, Centerville, Fairborn, Springboro, or the surrounding Miami Valley communities, a “smart early start” can be a big advantage.

A few practical moves:

  • Get fully pre-approved (not just pre-qualified) so you can move quickly when the right home hits.

  • Watch February closely. NAR specifically expects more inventory to come to market beginning in February.

  • Be strategic, not rushed: some sellers will negotiate, but the most desirable homes (location/condition/price) still go fast in tight-inventory areas.

What this means for sellers in 2026

If buyers aren’t waiting for spring, sellers don’t have to either.

Listing before the spring surge can mean:

  • Less competition from other sellers who wait until March/April

  • More attention from serious buyers who are already active

  • Stronger positioning when you price correctly and present the home well

The big takeaway from the latest local data: buyers are still paying close to the asking price on average, but they’re also more selective—so presentation, pricing, and marketing matter more than ever.

Moving to the Dayton area in 2026

We also work with many relocation buyers—especially those connected to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and regional healthcare systems like Kettering Health. If that’s you, the best approach is simple: match your timeline to the neighborhoods and price points where inventory tends to be tight, and get ahead of the “spring rush” while options are still opening up.

Bottom line: the market is moving—let’s plan around it

December didn’t just close out 2025—it kicked off 2026 with momentum. National sales improved, rates eased from prior highs, and locally, we saw a meaningful bump in Dayton-area activity.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in the Miami Valley in 2026, we’d love to help you build a clear plan (and timing strategy) based on your neighborhood and goals.

 

Call or text Don & Cyndi Shurts
Keller Williams Community Partners Realty
📱 937-241-2124 | 937-604-5194